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Can a single piece of software predict catastrophic events? Microsoft
believes it may have found a way to complete that very task.
The software giant alongside the Technion-Israel Institute of Technology is developing a disaster-predicting software platform that predicts future events by analyzing news headlines.
The program examines news headlines from different regions in order
to spot signs of diseases, outbreaks, and civil unrest that is the
result of regional violence.
Eric Horvitz, a co-director at Microsoft Research believes this type
of disaster predicting software will soon become commonplace. Horvitz
notes:
“I truly view this as a foreshadowing of what’s to come. Eventually this kind of work will start to have an influence on how things go for people.”
The team at Technology Review explains the early efficacy
cases of the software. For example in Angola droughts often cause
cholera. By examining headlines to determine how far spread a drought in
that region has become, Microsoft
can determine if an outbreak is likely. Microsoft could then track
claims of the cholera to find diseases and then track new cases to
determine if an outbreak is on the horizon.
Technology Review points out that “in similar tests
involving forecasts of disease, violence, and a significant numbers of
deaths, the system’s warnings were correct between 70 to 90 percent of
the time.”
Eventually the software could be used to make other predictions
outside of disease tracking. For example, areas prone to higher levels
of crime could be monitored more closely by police.
Secondary uses for Microsoft’s
new disaster predication tool will have to wait, the company does not
plan to make its new software available for public use until it has been
thoroughly tested and approved for accuracy.
Do you think software firms can effectively predict catastrophic events by paying attention to the news?
[Image via gawker] Author :
